Mindful Trader Commentary For March 18, 2021



Good morning! The portfolio right now is mixed. My bank stocks are up, but the energy stocks are down.


A subscriber pointed out to me that VLO got downgraded by Goldman Sachs after I bought it. Stuff like that happens. I have no control over news like that of course, and sometimes while holding a position there will be bad news and sometimes there will be good news. You get to decide what to do when that happens. In my case, I keep holding the position because I want to honor the back-tested approach. And in back tests, news items likely influenced all sorts of trade outcomes and in each case the original entry and exit rules were honored regardless. So that's what I'll be doing: sticking to the the original exits for VLO.


I got into CRH this morning. For those who use my watch list, you'll notice that I got in for 7 cents higher than I posted on the watch list. That's because the price technically hit my target in the opening minute, but my order didn't get filled. Since that qualified as an entry per the back-testing approach, I got in at the prevailing market price to ensure that I honored the back-tested approach.


I also want to point out how interesting it is watching the prices of these stocks. They're bouncing around a lot. HSBC was down noticeably the first few days. Now it's up noticeably. You never know for sure where these things are going to go. That's what I love about this trading approach: I'm not using discretion to make these decisions, and I therefore don't need to hang on to every price movement like everything is on the line. I'm using 20 years of a back-tested track record to power these decisions, and therefore I can honestly look at these price fluctuations as something interesting (or in my case fascinating), knowing that over time I expect the back-tested edge to play out profitability. If feelings of worry or distress come up along the way, I can give space and attention to those feelings knowing that my trading approach is based on a back-tested, academic approach.


If you have any questions or feedback, I'd love to hear from you.


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