Hey Guys,
The market is still cruising upward. I had another futures position hit its profit target and also had a couple more profitable stock trades close this morning. Overall across all accounts, I have a win-loss record of 11-1 for closed trades this week.
But does that mean that we're in the clear and everything will be rainbows and sunshine from here on out with the market? As always, the answer is that there is no way to be sure.
Check out this interesting chart though:
The SPY ticker (which represents the S&P 500) set up today for the "reverse" of my normal trading strategy. After the market thrusted so forcefully downward in the last two weeks, it's doing a reverse pullback and is right near the entry point for a short.
Does that mean it's likely that the market will go down at this point? Based on the research I've done, the answer might be "no". From everything I've tested, the reverse of my typical pullback strategy (which means to short in a setup like we're seeing today) may not have a long term edge. That's why I don't trade it. It doesn't mean it won't work at times! The market could very well go back down at this point. It just means that if we're looking for a repeatable mechanical setup to follow for the long term, doing the pullback strategy in reverse may not be the worth our time or risk. It will be fun to see how things unfold this time.
There aren't any new positions today. I haven't had a new options trade in about a week. I'm just staying cool while I wait for new trades. One good thing about the recent upward drive in market prices is that it might be creating uptrends for some tickers, which later could lead to more pullback trades for us. I've just got to wait until they are ready before I make any trades.
I have a stock position for CHKP in my main account, and that company is scheduled to report earnings tomorrow morning before the market opens. I'm scheduled to close the position tomorrow morning at the opening bell since it will be reaching its time limit, so that will overlap the earnings announcement. There is almost always increased volatility for stocks when they make earnings announcements. It could be for better or worse, but back tests suggest that over time there might be a payoff to holding through earnings with this trade strategy. So I will stick to my plan and sell at the open tomorrow morning if it doesn't reach its profit target today. But if you don't like the sound of the extra risk or don't want to give up the unrealized profit it's already showing, then you can consider closing the trade today.
If you have any questions or feedback, I'd love to hear from you.