Mindful Trader Commentary For February 18, 2022


Hey Guys,


This morning the market is hovering near where it closed yesterday, which is down from its midweek levels.


In the main account, I haven't made any new trades yet. I have limited buying power in that account as it is. In the extra options account I picked up an option position for MPC. In the low-priced account I bought stock positions for OXY and MDRX.


I closed my VRTX stock position this morning. I set up a market sell order before the market opened so that it would close automatically at the opening bell. That's how I close stock positions that reach their time limits. It closed for a partial loss.


I closed a number of options positions yesterday. COP was a winner, but overall the positions netted me a loss.


My options positions always reach their time limits on Thursdays (the day before expiration Friday), and after yet another Thursday where the market had a down day and dragged my options values with it, I decided to take a look back. So far in 2022, all but one Thursday has been a down day in the market. That's been pretty bad luck for us.


Does it mean we need to re-evaluate the entire game plan and that there must be something wrong with this approach? To my mind, definitely not. As interesting as it is that Thursdays have been doomed in 2022 so far, we're only talking about 7 data points. It's not statistically significant. If you think of baseball as an example, the MVP of the league could easily have an 0 for 7 slump, but it doesn't mean he's not awesome. You can't judge him based off just seven at bats. Seven data points is just too small of a sample size.


You need hundreds of data points to be able to really come to any meaningful conclusions. And when you look back over history, where we have hundreds of data points, it turns out that no, Thursdays are in fact not always doomed. But they're certainly in a rough patch right now! It's nice to be able to shine a spotlight on this and at least be aware of how the short term right now compares to the bigger picture. It might be likely that the bigger picture tendency prevails, and that helps me stay patient and stay the course.


I received a dividend for GSL overnight last night. Anyone who owned that stock as of the close of trading yesterday is going to receive the dividend. No action is needed to get it. Most brokerages will automatically credit it to your account (it will probably happen within the next several weeks).


If you have any questions or feedback, I'd love to hear from you.


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